Ranger Audit

April 24, 2011

Year in Review with a Look to the Future

Filed under: Current Season — rangersaudit @ 12:48 am

A few minutes after getting eliminated, Ranger fans must be feeling dejected. But logically speaking, this was an excellent season for the team.

1. Great Rookies

Michael Sauer joined the team at the start of the season and immediately became a rock, displaying confidence, hockey sense and positioning of a 10-year veteran. Then he was joined by another rookie blueliner in Ryan McDonagh midway through the season. McD similarly displayed veteran presence as soon as he joined the Rangers, becoming an instant fan favorite. Together they made up the second pairing on the team. It’s likely that they will be the team’s bedrock for the rest of the decade, maybe even beyond that.

At forward, Derek Stepan wasted no time proving that he can play in the NHL, scoring a hat trick in the first game and over 20 goals total. With hard work over the summer, it’s not unreasonable to expect Stepan to hit 60 points as early as next season.

Rookie winger Mats Zuccarello had an up and down season, often displaying skill, but sometimes being too weak or too slow. Depending on his improvement over the summer, Zuccarello may establish himself as a second liner next season or he may be relegated to a career of riding the bus in the minors, until he ships off back to Europe. It’s all up to how hard he’s willing to work in the summer.

2. Emergence of Young Veterans

The most obvious player who over-performed is Brian Boyle. According to coach John Tortorella, he was penciled in to start the season in the AHL after a disappointing rookie year. Instead he went on to pot over 20 goals, while skating like someone a foot shorter. Boyle has a good shot release, but the power of the shot is still lacking. He also needs to finish his body checks harder. Hitting a lot is not enough, he needs to use his large body to level people. But that’s progress for next season.

Another player who emerged despite low expectations is Brandon Prust. A throw-in in the Olli Jokinen for Chris Higgins and Ales Kotalik, the kid proved to be a building block for the Rangers. Prust may be a player who will remain in the bottom-6, but he’s excellent at what he does and should be part of the team’s long-term goals.

Ryan Callahan was injured much of the season, but was terrific when he dressed, leading the team in scoring per game. Together with the team’s overall point scorer, Brandon Dubinsky, they established themselves as excellent top-6 forwards. When Dubinsky and Callahan were rookies, the thought among most was that they will top out as great third liners. This year they proved that they are much more than that.

Centering Callahan and Dubinsky was Artem Anisimov, who also had a very good season, increasing his point production by more than 50%. He became more aware on the ice, and stopped skating with his eyes pointed down.

Dan Girardi was hated all through last summer for not defending Marian Gaborik in a fight. This year he proved himself a warrior – hitting, jumping in front of slap shots and even fighting. Girardi and Marc Staal are the team’s first pairing, hopefully for many years to come.

The one disappointing player on defense was Michael Del Zotto. Coming off a rookie season where he scored 37 points, the hope was that he will score even more this year, while improving his less-than-stellar defensive play. Instead, his defense completely collapsed, while his offense was worse than last year. Some reported that he was partying a little too much in New York. That New York partying was suddenly cut short when he got sent down to Hartford. Del Zotto will need to not just improve his skills, but his maturity.

However, his future remains very bright. He’s not the first offensively gifted player to struggle at a young age. Look for MDZ to return to the NHL next season, probably before calendar year 2012. Unless he destroys his own career, the kid will be the best offensive blueliner the Rangers had since Brian Leetch was traded away.

Defensemen Matt Gilroy, Steve Eminger and Bryan McCabe probably don’t figure in the Rangers long-term plans beyond another season or two at the most.

The same is true for forwards Vinny Prospal, Alex Frolov, Chris Drury, Erik Christensen, Sean Avery and Ruslan Fedotenko.

But the jury is still out on Wojtek Wolski. The kid is talented and creative, but has not been able to put it all together, scoring only 35 points, the same as Brian Boyle. An offensive player should score more.

Nevertheless, there is more of a chance that he’ll become the team’s building block than Michal Rozsival for whom he was traded. Wolski is almost 8 years younger and is just entering his prime, while Rozsival will likely soon begin his career’s descent.

Disappointing at forward was the team’s star forward Marian Gaborik. Considering how young the team’s core is and how often Gaborik gets injured, it would not the worst idea to trade him for someone a few years younger, even if that player is not as good. It would be harmful in the immediate future, but would be highly beneficial in a couple of years.

Overall, the team looks to be in better shape going forward than it looked at the season’s beginning. Between the rookies and the emergence of under-26 players who outperformed all expectations, the Rangers are now looking like a much more complete team than they did early in the season.

3. Prospects Outperform Expectations

The prospect nobody is paying attention to who may be a key part of the future is RW Jesper Fasth. True to his last name, the kid is lightning fast. At the age of 18, he established himself as a solid top-9 forward in a difficult Swedish Elite League, which is probably on par with the AHL. Some are concerned about his size at only 5-11 180 pounds, but he’s been able to play against adults in Sweden. It’s a different league, less physical and on a bigger ice sheet, but nevertheless, it’s excellent experience for Fasth. He also made the Swedish national team in the World Junior Championship, scoring 6 points in 6 games, opening a lot of eyes in the process. The kid certainly looks like a steal for a 6th round pick.

LW Roman Horak, on the other hand, did not impress in the WJC, in large part because his team was terrible. But he is playing well in the juniors and could become a second liner one day if he progresses properly.

Another 2010 draftee that is exciting a lot of people is RW Christian Thomas, who scored 63 goals and 118 points in 76 OHL games, playoffs included. What was most impressive is that he did this alone, carrying the team on his back.

LW Evgeny Grachev started as poorly as he did last season, but turned things around mid-season. Grachev is once again thought of as a top prospect.

LW Carl Hagelin continued dominating college, almost leading the team to the national championship as a captain. The team lost in the Finals, but Hagelin should be contesting for an NHL spot next year.

Another player I like is RW Dale Weise. He may not become a star, but he has potential to be more than a 4th liner. Weise is big and tough, and has found a way to rack up points at all levels below the NHL. His first few NHL games were not particularly impressive, but as he improves, the 2008 draftee will not only make the team, but may leave a mark on it too. His progress has been excellent this season, scoring 38 points in 47 AHL games. Can’t be unhappy with that when it comes to a grinder.

Hartford defensemen Pavel Valentenko and Tomas Kundratek also continued to improving and will be fighting for a spot on the Rangers roster next season.

A comprehensive review of Ranger prospects is coming up in a few days, but those are prospects who played surprisingly well this season or are close to making the Rangers.


All in all, the quality of the Rangers farm system seems better than it did at the start of the season. The rookies together with the improvement of youngsters who already made the team, make the future certainly look brighter now than it has in nearly two decades.

The loss to Washington is disappointing, but look ahead and lighten up. Good things are on the way.

Grade for the season with a look towards what was built for the future: B

Glen Sather Job Performance Review: Part 1 – The Draft

Filed under: Management & Coaches,Prospects & Drafts — rangersaudit @ 12:47 am

This is a definitive, move-by-move review of Glen Sather’s tenure, the good, the bad and the ugly.

1. THE DRAFT

All-Stars: Henrik Lundqvist, Marc Staal.

Above average NHLers (great third liners/fourth defensemen or better): Fedor Tyutin, Marek Zidlicky, Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan, Mike Sauer, Artem Anisimov, Derek Stepan.

NHL regulars for several season: Dominic Moore, Ryan Hollweg, Petr Prucha, Nigel Dawes, Lauri Korpikoski, Tom Pyatt.

Injured likely NHLers: Dan Blackburn, Alexey Cherepanov.

2007 and 2008 draftees with a good chance of making it: Carl Hagelin, Michael Del Zotto (not technically a prospect, but still a 20 year old developing in the minors), Evgeny Grachev, Tomas Kundratek, Dale Weise. [I am not looking at 2009 and 2010 because not enough time passed to judge them.]

Signed undrafted players with no prior NHL experience: Dan Girardi, Mats Zuccarello and Matt Gilroy.

First round busts: Hugh Jessiman, Al Montoya, Bob Sanguinetti.

Total number of above average NHLers drafted: 9
* Per draft 2000 to 2006: 1.3

Total number of NHLers: 15
* Per draft 2000 to 2006: 2.1

Total number of NHLers and 2007 and 2008 draftees who can make it: 20
* Per draft 2000 to 2008: 2.2

NHLers Glen Sather drafted or signed out of college/juniors:

Goalies
Henrik Lundqvist (* Sather relied on scouts he did not hire in 2000.)
Al Montoya
* Dan Blackburn would’ve been at least a backup, maybe a starter, if he didn’t get injured.

Defensemen
Staal
Girardi
Zidlicky
Sauer
Tyutin
Del Zotto
Gilroy

Centers
Derek Stepan
Artem Anisimov
Dominic Moore
Tom Pyatt

Left Wings
Brandon Dubinsky
Lauri Korpikoski
Ryan Hollweg
Nigel Dawes

Right Wings
Ryan Callahan
Evgeny Grachev
Dale Weise
Ryan Hollweg
Petr Prucha
* Cherepanov would have likely made the NHL by now but for his tragic sudden death.


Overall score? Very decent. In just 7 years, Glen Sather drafted a team with excellent goaltending and defense, and several excellent centers. The number of wingers already in the NHL is rather low, but that’s where all our top prospects are and there is hope that Thomas, Kreider, Hagelin, Fasth, Horak, Bourque, Grachev and Weise become good wingers – at least some of them.

The 2008 draft will likely produce at least 3, maybe 5 NHLers. The 2009 and 2010 drafts also look very nice.

Slats did get lucky with Henrik Lundqvist, but he also got unlucky with Dan Blackburn and Alexey Cherepanov, so I would say that equals out everything.

Similarly, it can be said that he had the luxury of having multiple first and second rounders in 2004, but then he also lacked the 2000 and 2002 draft choices. (The 2000 pick was dealt by Neil Smith as part of the Jamie Lundmark trade and the 2002 pick was sent as part of a package for Pavel Bure.)

Many are upset over the drafting of Hugh Jessiman, but selecting All-Star defenseman Marc Staal makes up for it. Al Montoya was a first round bust, but Callahan was a terrific 4th round choice the same year.

All in all, Rangers fans cannot be unhappy with the team drafting 2.2 NHLers per draft. Sather had his misses, but the total number of players he got is not bad at all.

Grade: B+

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